Two Argentines discovered how to always win

The study of teachers focused on knowing the probability of each result with precision.

Lisandro Kaunitz, who is a neuroscientist at the University of Tokyo. and Javier Kreiner, a specialist in data science, explains his work with an example: an investigation on statistical regularities that are observed in football matches: knowing the probability of each result with precision.

In their work they analyzed 479,440 football matches (10 years of 818 league games around the world) and found that bookmakers are “very precise” in estimating the odds of the results. The next step was to identify the values ​​of the bets that represent a “good deal” for the bettor and allow him to win money in the long term.

“We set up an online server to monitor the value paid by bookmakers in real time (they surveyed 32 betting sites), and we made a panel that shows the opportunities that are emerging and put it online (publicly so that anyone can check for yourself that the strategy works) ”, Kreiner remarked in an interview with Télam.

The system works like this: when a bet that represented a “good deal” appeared on the online panel, they went to the site of that runner, started a session, searched for the game and bet. Betting their own money, they played in 265 bets for US $ 50 each (that is, US $ 13,250 in total) and won US $ 957.50, that is, a return of 8.5%.

“Either way, not all the silver was wagered at any given time. We had a maximum of 30 bets at the same time, that is, US $ 1,500 were at the same time at the same time, ”said Kaunitz, and stressed that the codes and data they used in the investigation uploaded them to the website on the Github site“ so that other researchers could replicate it. ”

To explain their strategy, the researchers gave the following example: we are going to throw a coin and if it goes expensive you pay me a dollar, otherwise I pay you two dollars. This is a great deal for one person because half of the time (on average) you will lose a dollar and the other half of the time you will earn two dollars.

However, given the positive results that the researchers achieved, they noticed that somehow the bookmakers discovered their strategy because they began to limit their bets, or directly to block them, or to prohibit them from making bets, Kaunitz and Kreiner warned.”We discovered an important thing, and is that online betting houses do not accept customers who consistently win, who bet rationally,” Kaunitz said.

“If you start to win with consistency they will block you or limit your bets to tiny values ​​(sometimes cents). This is similar to what a casino does, if the house discovers that you win the black jack consistently (one of the few games in which there is any chance of beating the house, using the card counting method), then they will kick out of the casino, ”added Kreiner.

“The final message of our paper is: bookmakers do not accept successful clients. We believe that future potential clients should be fully aware of this fact, ”they concluded.

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